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Bitcoin sinks to 4-week low amid bearish chart, speculation on China crackdown on cryptos

Bitcoin sinks to 4-week low amid bearish chart, speculation on China crackdown on cryptos submitted by leftok to atbitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin sinks to 4-week low amid bearish chart, speculation on China crackdown on cryptos

Bitcoin sinks to 4-week low amid bearish chart, speculation on China crackdown on cryptos submitted by KitcoNews to KitcoNEWS [link] [comments]

Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet

Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots.
A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC).
Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea.
When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust.
However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:

Is Bitcoin money?

No.
Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves:
1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own.
As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get.
You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there?
2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile.
If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point:
3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away.
For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast.
On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC
While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad.
One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy.
If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due.
Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.

BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in

Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense.
Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run.
See here
Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well.
Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money.
Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph
The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand.
Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price
Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control.
It's also a national security risk...
The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa
In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca.
He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade.
This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.

Currencies are based on trust

Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged?
The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president.
People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all.
It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board.
For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency
This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government."
The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.

BTC is not gold

Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value.
How do we know that?
Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan.
Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well.
Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties:
First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment.
Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials.
Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans.
It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods.
To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that.
On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.

BTC is really risky

One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds.
But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:

Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient

Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science.
That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale.
The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
submitted by VodkaHaze to badeconomics [link] [comments]

The Four Horsemen - Signs of Incoming Crashes, and things.

Hey y'all! I'm going to keep this brief, but I was asked by Mr. October to post this, since I briefly described this on a discord we're both in. I do a ton of market analysis, mostly on alternative data, so I don't have cool superpowers potentially, but I do fancy myself a good trendspotter.
I wanted to share what I call my Four Horseman metric in brief, and I will fill it in more later when I get back/free from the clutches of homework.
The Four Horsemen:
  1. Rapid plunge in BTC/USD - This is an interesting metric, and makes sense if you understand that BTC has evolved from a hedge to a speculation play, which is why it arguably moves in lockstep with SPY most days. However, an interesting property I and many others have noticed is BTC seems to be a leading indicator of market movements, and rapid climbs/plunges tend to signal an incoming correction. See the chart on September 2nd, 2020 for an example.
  2. NOPE_MAD >= 3 End of Day: NOPE, or Net Option Pricing Effect, in principle looks at how dominant options flow trading volume is on the market compared to the more conventional shares volume. When the NOPE_MAD (median absolute deviation) compared to the previous 30 days is 3 deviations higher than normal, this means a red day the next day about 88% of the time (backtested to Mar 2019). You can check NOPE_MAD intraday here - https://thenope.info/nope/default/charts/SPY/2020-10-13 (the URL changes per day, so tomorrow will be 2020-10-14)
  3. The VIX rising with SPY - This usually is part of the parabolic phase, and means a metric fuck ton of calls are being written, which is pushing up option prices across the board. Usually VIX is a measure of downies-volatility, so when it and SPY both go up, it's a Very Bad Thing. Also see September 2nd, 2020.
  4. Small Tech/Caps Leading Big Tech/Caps - This is a more interesting metric, and only makes sense when you understand what causes a Minsky Moment style correction (irrational exuberance). In a stable market, big caps tend to act as a source of strength/safe harbor, and when small caps are leading, this tends to signal intense bull mania, which usually precedes a correction.
Honorable Mentions:
  1. Microsoft going up parabolically - Microsoft is our favorite boomer stock for a reason - it is much more stable than AMZN or AAPL, and doesn't like large movements. I noticed anecdotally this year that right before all the big tech corrections (3-5 days out) MSFT goes up exponentially, often more than the rest of the market, because smart money is looking for safe harbor.
I'd be happy to answer any questions later!

Edit: Wanted to add some stuff given the comments below.
  1. I did not write this to predict a crash based on today's behavior, but to generally inform about a metric I use to detect Minsky Moment style crashes. For more info on that - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment
  2. Lots of these indicators are new, and due in large part due to the relative fuckiness of the current market. Bitcoin and SPY did not track until this year, and I only noticed the Microsoft effect I mentioned since about 6/5 onwards. This likely also happens in other boomesafe stocks, but MSFT is by far my largest active trading position, hence why I noticed it.
  3. I will be adding a post soon specifically dedicated to the interpretation of NOPE and NOPE_MAD.
submitted by the_lilypad to thecorporation [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Chainlink, Waves, Dogecoin Price Analysis: 25 October

This post was originally published on this siteThis post was originally published on this siteChainlink was recording strong gains on the charts amidst speculation that its rally could be stronger than Bitcoin’s once again, like it was in July. Bitcoin had climbed to $13,300 at press time and it might just head higher, with many other altcoins posting gains too. However, while […]
submitted by FuzzyOneAdmin to fuzzyone [link] [comments]

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Bitcoin's 30-day flimsiness down to its most insignificant level since October 2019, demonstrating the nonattendance of directional tendency.

When all is said in done, computerized types of cash passed on a mixed display. Most huge top advanced types of cash passed on negative returns, while mid and minimal top cryptographic types of cash, for instance, LINK, ADA, BAT, VET, and IOST passed on positive returns. In particular, VET had a staggering month, passing on over 40% return in June. 1855*708*1311 @@ BINance Customer Service Number

Binance Futures included 6 new understandings, taking its total incessant understanding commitments to 31. 1855*708*1311 @@ BINance Customer Service Number

Open energy on Binance Futures continues producing for the fourth successive month from 500 million to 580 million USDT, a 16% month-on-month increase. In Q2, open interest has created by ove1855*708*1311 @@ BINance Customer Service Numberr 160% from 200 million USDT in March.

Bitcoin unsteadiness generally diminished since October 2019

Bitcoin's worth action has promptly gotten horrible for certain traders. Its worth run has fixed over the latest couple of weeks, floating some place in the scope of $9,000 and $9,500.

The slight worth get has in like manner decided Bitcoin's 30-day eccentrics down to its most negligible level since October 2019, exhibiting the nonappearance of directional tendency.

Preparing to its third separating, Bitcoin empowered by over 150% in just two months. Starting now and into the foreseeable future, Bitcoin has again and again fail to develop an a trustworthy parity above $10,000. The nonattendance of buyer vitality has created a peaceful and quiet worth reach out for Bitcoin; this has incited speculations that a significant move is on its way.

Blueprint 1 - Bitcoin's Thirty-day Rolling Volatility

Bitcoin's 30-day moving flightiness has inclined downwards since June fifth, a rot of over 80% since April, realizing a worth hardening between $8,800 to $9,800. 1855*708*1311 @@ BINance Customer Service Number

As showed up in the unquestionable data, Bitcoin will all in all chart sudden gigantic moves following a sharp fall in unsteadiness to or lower than 30%. For instance, when capriciousness hit a low of 21% in mid-February this year, and in the following weeks, Bitcoin tumbled from $10,000 to a low of $3,800, a sharp 60% decline in just a single month. In a comparable period, unconventionality spiked from 21% to over 90% as budgetary masters reacted in free for all to the sudden mishap.

While we are not envisioning a similar mishap as found in March, the critical takeaway is, seasons of incredibly low precariousness routinely go before Bitcoin breakouts or breakdowns of enormous scope importance.

Altcoins become the predominant point of convergence

With capriciousness on its least in near a year, BTC passed on negative returns in June, completing the month down 3.2%. In like manner, major altcoins, for instance, ETH, BCH, and EOS completed the month some place around - 2.6%, - 6.9%, and - 11.5% independently.

All things considered, computerized types of cash passed on a mixed introduction. Most tremendous top computerized types of cash passed on negative returns, while mid and minimal top cryptographic types of cash, for instance, LINK, ADA, BAT, VET, and IOST. In particular, VET had a phenomenal month, passing on over 40% return in June.

These new asset commitments are depended upon to give extra trading opportunities to all crypto-auxiliaries representatives and open entryways for diggers to help.

Trading volume shrinks despite Altcoin demand

In June, trading volume on Binance Futures indicated a 36% month-on-month decay, with $87.6 billion traded over its relentless understandings. Binance Futures demonstrated a consistently typical volume of $2.9 billion, 34% lower than the ordinary step by step volume to May.Bitcoin's most noteworthy preferred position quality

In reality, even as new altcoin contracts were introduced, BTC ceaseless agreements remained the most contributed understanding, overpowering 67% of irrefutably the open interest. Over the latest fourteen days, open energy for BTC contracts has grown logically regardless of its limited worth run.

This discernment is contrary to the volume data demonstrated previously. In the past diagram, we observed more altcoin volume all through June, regardless, the extended volume rate didn't mean a higher open interest rate. Or maybe, a huge part of the open interest advancement was driven by BTC gets, this may recommend that specialists are arranging directional bets on Bitcoin.
submitted by ascasnckjnaskjcn to u/ascasnckjnaskjcn [link] [comments]

IOTA won't break out until we see real adoption

It should be clear by now to pretty much everyone that IOTA is a bit... 'different'. Good news that would send any moonboy's pick to the moon either does nothing or tanks it, it's well below projects that are 100% provable scams/vaporware and it's one of the few projects with actual corporate interest behind it.
Until we see the 2.0 "Honey" mainnet live, IOTA will remain asleep. Even after that, IOTA probably won't soar to Ethereum or Bitcoin levels (unless those crash significantly, bridging the gap that way) because speculation levels are relatively low: how do you explain to an idiot with charts in their eyes what IOTA is trying to accomplish?
I'm not revising my initial estimates of $300-500/MIOTA over the long-term, however I don't think we'll hit that until close to 2030+. I also think it will be a slow rise, with a gruesome decoupling from BTC/ETH due to standardization and the first production solutions. Hopefully after that the entire crypto market collapses on itself, having already become a $200B+ bubble with a real value measured in handful of pennies.
submitted by PlusLiterature7 to IOTAmarkets [link] [comments]

Bitcoin looks very interesting this week. Are you going to play?

Bitcoin looks to be trying to breakout of a 3 year long symmetrical triangle, and according to TA theory this puts BTC at a target of around 40k over the next few years. Couple that with metals rallying, bitcoin could see an explosion far bigger than anticipated.
Bitcoin looks really good right now fundamentally. With the digitization of banking, bitcoin fundamentals favor more in the 21st century than that of metals. Bitcoin is easily divisible, more portable, and more compatible with modern technology. Bitcoin's chart has been far more sideways than the BTCUSD chart implies since it's halving, much of the perceived volatility has been actually just volatility in USD. Actually the last 400 days on the bitcoin chart kinda just looks like silver's chart if you compare them. Of course with bitcoin the biggest obstacle is adoption among institutions, because gold and silver are only valuable because they are accepted. Bitcoin is more of a speculation until it's more widely accepted.
submitted by ShotBot to investing [link] [comments]

Russian bankers about bitcoin. Bitcoin in Russia.

Russian bankers about bitcoin. Bitcoin in Russia.

https://preview.redd.it/0hms3wd4cyc51.jpg?width=686&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8e5c05104d32f5ca4a35f0c3cb5875115194b6ba

This image was found in the largest Russian Bank`s "Sberbank" app.

There are "stories" in that app like in instagram, where the Bank tells about financial literacy, how not to become deceived by fraudsters, and post advertising.

Translation:

Bitcoin is not a currency, but speculation
The price of bitcoin can change by tens of percent per day. Due to its unpredictability, it is unlikely to become a popular means of payment and a way to save capital. These are the functions that money performs.
Cryptocurrencies do not have a legal status in Russia, and when you exchange cryptocurrencies for national currency, banks block user accounts in accordance with the law "on countering the financing of terrorism and laundering"

Percents of inflation in russia by years (values may be underestimated by the government ):

https://preview.redd.it/wzi5hv8bhyc51.png?width=205&format=png&auto=webp&s=06ce4d1ed5d20049e36f68190bad093040eae7fd
Rub to usd chart for last years (the national currency always is falling in value) :
In 2014 the national currency fell by almost 15-20% a day
https://preview.redd.it/ndw7px2eiyc51.png?width=699&format=png&auto=webp&s=4769d073e02916f1684ebb242a5eb59a60ff9e65
submitted by loginov671 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Everything you need to know about technical analysis in crypto trading

Everything you need to know about technical analysis in crypto trading
Hello, community! 👋🏻 In this post, we will tell you about technical analysis.
📊 There are three main schools for analyzing cryptocurrencies or any other asset. These are fundamental analysis, technical analysis and sentiment analysis. Technical analysis is the main method in crypto trading.
📈 Technical analysis (or TA for short) is the art of predicting price movement through the study of charts that show how an asset has traded in the past. You need to find and compare patterns that have been encountered earlier. It is assumed that past models are highly likely to work in the future.
The number of methods used by technical analysis is very large. But they are broken down into several fairly specific classes:
🔹 Levels and lines of resistance and support
🔹 Technical Indicators
🔹 Figures (patterns) on large areas of the chart
🔹 "Candlestick analysis" - patterns on Japanese candlesticks or bars in short areas
🔹 Trade statistics - volumes, order books, etc.
TA was originally developed for markets where trading has a long history and a large amount of data. TA outperforms analysis based on business fundamentals, according to an extensive 2015 study by three Israeli researchers.
Many traders say that TA is even more important in cryptocurrencies, as no one can yet confidently determine the fundamental value of Bitcoin, which was launched just 11 years ago. Is it a hedge against inflation, a digital form of gold? The future of money? It can be all of the above.
⚙️ Technical analysis is a key part of an asset management strategy, and it works well when combined with news analysis to identify likely move patterns and up / down limits. Since cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and speculative, technical analysis provides key indicators of price movement, especially support and resistance.
✅ With the help of technical analysis, it is good to predict where the price will move next. Take advantage of the BITLEVEX platform to build your crypto capital.
✅ BITLEVEX is a secure and reliable trading platform that gives you the opportunity to earn big. You can make up to 500% profit within 24 hours! And there are no deposit and withdrawal fees!
🔥 Hurry up and register now: https://bitlevex.com
https://preview.redd.it/fnivq596mpo51.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=350b387236f5e9d033f4f5518bd4936d80cfd5ed
submitted by VS_community to BITLEVEX [link] [comments]

Slowish Up Day

For Trading September 10th
Kinda Boring Day
Nothing Exceptional
Is TIK TOK Really a Deal?
Today’s market started without a lot of market moving news, although the futures were higher as European markets shrugged off the overnight weakness that carried over to Asia and was higher. The JOLTs # came in at 6.615 million, above the 5.9 expected and there was also a slight revision higher for last month. The market actually had good reason to go lower again with the Astra Zenaca’s news on their vaccine trial, the lack of any stimulus action, and the lack of demand in airline travel. But it didn’t, and although we were higher all day, the volume was week and the A/D’s were nothing to write home about. The DJIA was +439.58 (1.6%) but was up over 700 but the last 30 minutes saw it fall back, NASDAQ +293.87 (2.7%), S&P 500 +67.12 (2%), the Russell +21.,89 (1.45%), and DJ Transports +164.11 (1.5%). The DJIA was exactly the opposite of yesterday with 26 higher and 4 down. The biggest winners were MSFT +57, HD +52, UNH +33 and AAPL +30 DPs and there were no double-digit losers.
Tomorrow we have Initial and continuing claims. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TODAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/DK2hmC0GXFk With my guest: Dennis Marlow! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/bRFoE2jG1B8
SECTORS: We started off the day yesterday with GM taking a $2Billion stake in NKLA and NKLA planning to utilize the GM factories to build their “prospective” pickup truck. Both stocks were higher with NKLA gapping up to open $46.00 and trading as high as $54.56 and closing $50.05 +14.50 (40%), while GM opened $31.55, trading $33.33 and closing $32.38 +2.38 (7.93%). Today they figured out that an upstart with no experience and an old-line auto manufacturer that spend the last 3 decades doing poorly and eliminating several of their lines of business might not be all rainbows and lollipops and sent NKLA back in the opposite direction, losing a touch over half and closing $42.37 -7.68 (15.34%). GM fared better losing only a fraction. LULU posted solid earnings growth and a beat on both earnings and revenues, but it just wasn’t enough as the stock which closed $349.80 -11.61 but then fell to $324 and it was $329.50 -31.91 (8.83%). Today it fell to $315.25 and finished $323.93 -25.87 (7.4%). Slack did a little better and finished $25.24 -4.06, about $2.00 higher than it was trading in after-hours. Today’s action in TIF was not as bad as I would have expected with LVMH calling off their engagement based on some BS order from a government agency that said they should “postpone the marriage” until next year (long passed the agreed date) and essentially violating the agreement. Stay tuned for the lawyers’ statements on both sides. And the big winner was Intra-cellular Therapies, ITCI who had solid topline results for its Bi-polar drug and the stock closed yesterday $18.43 and after trading $42.99 in the pre-market it opened $31.15, traded to $33.74 and closed the day $31.86 +13.43 (72.87%). We also had news late this afternoon that there may be some room for negotiation with the powers that be, to find another way to deal with a deal that DOES NOT involve a sale of TIK TOK. So, does that mean that MSFT, WMT, CRM and any others give back the out-sized gains on the speculation that they were going to own it??
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.33, BGS +.84, FLO +.20, CPB +.38, CAG +.87, MDLZ +1.11, KHC -.01, CALM -.12, JJSF -1.04, SAFM -.59, HRL +.42, SJM +1.60, PPC +.02, KR +.83, and PBJ $33.69 +.62 (1.88%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +4.10, ABBV +1.51, REGN +9.26, ISRG +25.31, GILD +.32, MYL -.39, TEVA +.07, VRTX +4.43, BHC +.27, INCY +1.65, ICPT _+.18, LABU +2.85, and IBB $129.36 +2.48 (1.95%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.06, CGC +.81, CRON +.11, GWPH +1.37, ACB +.04, NBEV +.03, CURLF +.04, KERN +.08, and MJ $11.75 +.44 (3.89%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +6.77, GD -.76, TXT +.26, NOC +4.85, BWXT +1.09, TDY -.42, RTX +.65, and ITA $162.42 +.28 (.17%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.06, JWN -.72, KSS -.15, DDS -.04, WMT +2.24, TGT +3.99, TJX -.49, RL -1.55, UAA -.35, LULU -22.80 (6.52%), TPR -.30, CPRI1.41 (7.89%), and XRT $51.27 +1.09 (2.17%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +29.40, AMZN +124.21, AAPL +5.69, FB +3.84, NFLX -4.27, NVDA +37.73 (7.92%), TSLA +44.73 (13.55%), BABA +4.32, BIDU +.02, CRM +11.73, BA +.42, CAT +4.87, DIS -.30, and XLK $117.33 +4.55 (4.03%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.02, JPM +1.33, BAC +.13, MS +1.08, C +.50, PNC -.39, AIG +.28, TRV +.92, AXP +.11, V +4.77, and XLF $24.89 +.25 (1.01%).
OIL, $38.05 +1.29. Oil was higher in today’s trading and drifted all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider buying it for a bounce. Nat Gas was unchanged at $2.406 and closed a gap left on the upside that occurred when we were long last month. I was looking at UNG (NG ETF) as a proxy to get long and we bought the UNG 10/16 $14 calls @ $ .57 today.
GOLD $1,954.90 + 11.70, sold off early but didn’t break below the $1905 area I am using as support. It turned back and rallied and closed right near the highs. I did a short update video today: https://youtu.be/KJgk-wmVJ4U I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $2.76, and we also added some October 70’s at $1.65 which closed $2.85.
BITCOIN: closed $10,320 +305. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.52 +.42 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Bitcoin might just stay clear of the $9600 CME Gap

This post was originally published on this siteThis post was originally published on this siteThe value of Bitcoin continues to trail under the resistance of $10,440 in the charts, as its inability to peak above continues to draw speculation. Although over the week, the asset has slowly bridged the gap from a bottom of $9890, a prolonged period of consolidation may cause […]
submitted by FuzzyOneAdmin to fuzzyone [link] [comments]

When and where will the next bitcoin high will be?

When and where will the next bitcoin high will be?

https://preview.redd.it/l99rjokbpjk51.png?width=2468&format=png&auto=webp&s=874f75f4e66f2040a7f77e9878db6eed085a78ee

The BTC price is ready to move to $23,000

Analyst Pladizow notices. He points out that the bitcoin monthly chart shows the Cup and Handle reversal pattern.
The standard target of the pattern materialization will be the level of $23,000. The pattern will be considered complete when the price will break through the point of $11,000 on its monthly chart.
Earlier, the analyst predicted the rise of the BTC price to $12,000 if the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern will be completely formed on the four-hour chart.

When bitcoin would cost $300,000

Crypto expert WyckoffMode said. He used Fibonacci levels and channels to predict the next bitcoin price high.
It turned out that the new cycle’s high would be within the range of $152,000-298,000. The trader points out that it should happen in December, 2021. WyckoffMode supposes that then the price will go down to the range of $50,000-60,000 before January 2023 and the new growth’s high will occur in December, 2025.
His speculations are based on the fact that BTC price movement cycles take 4 years because this is the periodicity with which halving occurs.
"With the first year being Distribution; the second year being Accumulation and the third and fourth year being multiple bouts of re-accumulation building up to a buying climax before starting over again with the first year of Distribution. One of the main reasons for this natural wave cycle of approximately four years involves the Bitcoin Block Halving", the analyst writes

Opinion: Ethereum may get corrected down $360

Trader Credible Crypto has predicted a grow up to $460 earlier this week.
The analyst thinks after that, the ETH price may get corrected down to the point of $360.
Credible Crypto thinks that the situation is opposite for bitcoin: until the price does not break through $11,800, the trend remains downward. He supposes that the potential fall target is the range of $10,600–10,900.
submitted by bestchange_pr to bestchange [link] [comments]

"Swap" is Poised for Take-off


https://preview.redd.it/mnxeb74hk4j51.jpg?width=990&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=32d152a7495971c10e1af12185abe5e77b61fd14

How popular is DeFi?
Link, known as the leader of the oracle machine, has increased by 305.19% for the past three months, with an investment return of 17,052%, climbing to the fifth spot in the cryptocurrency ranking list by market value in the short term;
Since its issuance, YFI, which has soared 350 times all the way, has attracted 630 million US dollars of investment in 5 days, and was even dubbed the next Bitcoin in this circle;
From Comp for lending, KNC and BAL, governance tokens for decentralized exchanges, to SNX which is a stable currency payment network, various governance tokens of the DeFi ecosystem have emerged in an endless stream, stirring the blood in the market.
Such a boom is not only reflected in the currency price, but also pushes the brand new DEX based on the AMM (automated market making) model an overnight hit. UniSwap, known as the next-generation casino, has surpassed the world's first-tier centralized exchanges such as Binance, OKex, and Huobi in user activity, daily trading volume, and daily turnover.
With the rapid rise of UniSwap, the DEX threat theory has once again triggered heated discussions among the media and communities in the blockchain industry.
DEX on the Rise
The success of UniSwap is by no means something accidental. As early as 2018 when centralized exchanges suffered the hacker theft one after another, Vitalik Buterin, founder of Ethereum, predicted that the future lay in decentralized exchanges and that Ethereum, by developing a "better" decentralized platform, could empower the cryptocurrency community to regain the dominance from the centralized cryptocurrency exchange.
To realize the decentralized concept of returning to users their asset ownership, geeks in the blockchain industry have made many attempts.
Kyber Network, Bancor, Balancer, 0X, Curvefi, etc. are all DEXs based on Ethereum blocks. For a long time, affected by the performance of Ethereum and cross-chain issues, these DEXs were once stagnant.
With the lessons learned from Ethereum DEX, newcomers to the DEX have focused on high performance, high TPS, and rich assets as the ultimate goal for product development.
Amid the DEX threat theory, major exchanges have deployed their own public chain DEX products in a response to their respective development strategies: Binance launched Binance DEX on its Binance Chain, and Bittrex Exchange unveiled Ethfinex on the Ethereum and EOSfinex on the EOS blockchain, two platforms where users can exchange for fiat currencies; last year, CoinEx officially launched CoinEx Chain, a public chain dedicated to decentralized transactions, followed by CoinEx DEX.
Since the birth of the DEX in the blockchain world, this field has never run out of competition.
By independent development or other’s advantage?
From 2017 when it was established to 2019 as it stabilized, DEX has witnessed its annual trading volume skyrocketing from less than US$5 million to over US$2.5 billion. As DeFi gains fame and grows rapidly, DEX has grown into the most popular source of money, attracting a flood of speculators. In the past month, the trading volume of the global cryptocurrency market DEX has exceeded US$ 4 billion, more than twice the figure across 2019.
In the past two years, despite the increasingly in-depth exploration in the DEX, the cross-chain issue remains a stumbling block in its development path. DEX will not outperform CEX in the trading experience until a cross-chain solution is worked out.
The concept of DeFi went viral in 2019. With the continuous improvement of the DeFi ecosystem, the current Ethereum blockchain has developed into a complete decentralized financial system, covering mortgage lending, interest from deposit, leveraged trading, token exchange, identity authentication, and other infrastructure essential to traditional financial systems.
In addition to the mouth-watering profit, the DeFi ecosystem has also brought along explosive growth in both the type and quantity of digital assets, making DEX a market favorite. Compared with the DEX dedicated to public chains, the Ethereum-based DEX has been equipped with more possible functions and thus become more attractive thanks to the comprehensive supplementary infrastructure on Ethereum.
This also presents DEX pioneers with new opportunities. Dubbed “Swap’s summer”, the summer of 2020 has seen a market rush in Swap development after UniSwap became a hit.
Miniswap, Justswap, and btswap are no more innovative than UniSwap according to their product structures and white papers.
By comparison, OneSwap has injected unique essence into its product design and governance model based on UniSwap's automated market making.
Upgraded UniSwap
OneSwap, which has a double mining model + order book, has received an investment of tens of millions from CoinEx even before the product is launched. It is known that OneSwap is jointly developed by a group of technology geeks who have engaged in the cryptocurrency community for many years. The project was initiated by a member of the team in an attempt to upgrade UniSwap after he experienced the convenient AMM enabled by UniSwap.
Without limit orders, users have to trade in the price set by the platform, which, however, compromised their experience. In addition, the lack of liquidity mining and transaction mining rewards cannot reduce the losses of liquidity providers caused by unilateral market conditions.
"DEX still has much room for perfection, and could even surpass CEX in trading experience"
The OneSwap development team always believes that UniSwap still has a long way to go before it becomes the strongest DEX in the DeFi ecosystem. They have endeavored to, relying on their abundant experience in exchange product development and digital currency trading, create the most powerful DEX product in the DeFi ecosystem based on smart contracts.
OneSwap is called the “upgraded UniSwap” in the community. By the combination of the Constant Product Market Maker (CPMM) model in the Uniswap project and the on-chain order book, it reduces restrictions on users’ trading, and, through its OneSwap Wallet, improves user interaction methods and further enhances their experience in trading and product usage.
OneSwap boasts one-click token issuance and listing essential to DEX. Unlike the listing review mechanism on Binance DEX, the setting of OneSwap is more consistent with the concept of decentralization. Anyone can put his or her good projects and ideas, if any, into practice through OneSwap without permission.
In terms of product design, OneSwap will add to its function menu the Candlestick chart, order form, and depth chart according to user habits, apart from limit orders. These functions will offer OneSwap users an experience as smooth, easy-to-use, and convenient as in the CEX.
A new source of money? A two-pronged platform with transaction mining + liquidity mining
To support on-chain governance, OneSwap will issue a ERC20 governance token called ONES. The total number of ONES remains constant at 100 million, 50% of which will be used as community funds to support the construction of the OneSwap ecosystem and 50% will be owned by the OneSwap team. Community funds can be applied for through on-chain governance. 5% of the part held by the team will be unlocked initially, and the rest will be unlocked at a rate of 5% every six months until all is unlocked after four and a half years.
After the OneSwap product was launched, the OneSwap team will take part of the initially unlocked tokens as airdrop rewards for the open beta. Then OneSwap will officially start liquidity mining and transaction mining, and the governance token ONES will also be simultaneously launched on centralized trading platforms across the world. The first round of mining activities will last for one month, and mining rewards are yet to be made public.
Liquidity mining is a popular way of obtaining governance tokens in the DeFi ecosystem. Well-known DeFi projects including COMP, Cure, and Banner have all enabled liquid mining.
Transaction mining could date back to 2018 when Fcoin grew popular.
The transaction mining model initiated by Fcoin in 2018 once set off a bull market that year, pushing many investors into financial freedom in the rush of transaction mining. In addition, transaction mining based on the DeFi ecosystem is still a blue ocean, which is not common in the current market. The success of OneSwap's double mining model, if possible, would surely start a craze in the cryptocurrency market.
The OneSwap team has not yet announced specific mining rules, but disclosed that it has developed the smart contract code. To ensure the product security, OneSwap will invite three well-known security agencies in the blockchain industry to audit the code and announce the auditing results in early September at the soonest.
Conclusion
DeFi did not rise to fame without reason in 2020. Such overnight popularity is an inevitable result of Ethereum's efforts to build a decentralized consensus mechanism and improve infrastructure in the past few years. Ethereum has almost become the only public chain in the DeFi circle and the only construction base for well-known DEX. If OneSwap succeeds, it means a huge breakthrough for both DeFi and Ethereum, and decentralization in its true sense is around the corner.
submitted by JuanJuanChan to defi [link] [comments]

MCS | The Record High Gold Price! What's going to happen to the price of Bitcoin, the digital gold?

MCS | The Record High Gold Price! What's going to happen to the price of Bitcoin, the digital gold?

\This post has been written by Hedgehog, an MCS influencer and one of Korea's famous cryptocurrency key opinion leaders.*

https://preview.redd.it/mq4voa301cf51.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c92a18bcb75f2f10e8dee1e0ba27d121fdc8368

#Be_a_Trader!

Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first.

https://preview.redd.it/uaryqg421cf51.png?width=1302&format=png&auto=webp&s=049a3413ff1392c1f579e84e9a14cac76959e12c
For the first time in history, the world gold price has topped $2,000 an ounce. Quantitative easing in major countries has brought astronomical amounts into the financial markets. In addition, Nasdaq is also setting a new high in anticipation of further economic stimulus agreements in the US this week.
Financial experts cite the followings for the main causes of the recent gold rally.
👉 First, experts analyze this intensification of the gold rally was caused by the stuttered US dollar rebound and the lowered US Treasury yield. In particular, as the US government's discussion on further economic stimulus measures to alleviate the global economic damage caused by COVID-19 from Wuhan, China is expected to come to an agreement this week, many speculate that this will lead to a drop in dollar value. Although the White House, Republicans, and Democrats have yet to narrow their views on additional stimulus measures prolonging the negotiation, it is very likely that the release of more dollars in the market, in the sense that everyone agrees on the need for additional stimulus, will relatively increase the value of gold.
👉 Second, some say that “the central banks in many countries will continue to buy gold to promote gold prices” referring to cases where central banks' buying of gold increased their gold prices during the 2009 global financial crisis.

"How high will the gold price go❓ "
Most experts believe that the gold price is still far from its limit. Especially, the Goldman Sachs Group is looking at $2,300 an ounce, Bank of America from $2,500 an ounce to up to $3,000 an ounce, and RBC Capital Market $3,000 an ounce.

https://preview.redd.it/vdk9z7251cf51.png?width=1308&format=png&auto=webp&s=057fc3749ebb69d881d5c0f1dbb35e8d075c7b89
The price of Bitcoin, also known as a safe digital asset, also remains in the $11,100 to $11,300 range ever since it recently broke the highest point of $12,000.

https://preview.redd.it/98v29w551cf51.png?width=2272&format=png&auto=webp&s=50b3957a0cffaa121d49c38e083223780841a3a9
Bitcoin, the No. 1 market capitalization among cryptocurrencies, has a market capitalization of approximately 200 billion USD as of August 5, 2020. This is more than the global stock valuations of Intel and Coca-Cola.

https://preview.redd.it/z6cxe1y51cf51.png?width=2560&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e74da23155fd6a4b9fe2521c61cbf4bd8bd9b94
A cryptocurrency media outlet, CoinDesk recently said that "Bitcoin recently hit a market high of $11,480, but there was a sign of buyer (buying force) fatigue in the technology chart. If the price falls below $11,000, it could retreat back to, before resistance now support, $10,500 (the highest point in February). However, if Bitcoin continues to settle above $11,400 on the time chart, it is highly likely that the rally will go above the latest high beyond $12,000".
I believe now that the value of gold, a famous safe asset, is the highest ever as the U.S. government has tentatively agreed to invest an additional $1 trillion in economic stimulus, the Bitcoin is also preparing to its rally again. I also think that since it is the post-halving period with the good news waiting in line including the Ethereum 2.0, we have enough momentum to rally more than $20,000 by the end of the year.

💡 "Nothing is permanent in this wicked world - not even our troubles." - Charlie Chaplin
All financial assets, including Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency leader, cannot be bullish forever. In the long run, they can gradually rise by stepping up the lowest price point, but there are a lot of ups and downs along the way. MCS traders can enjoy a bull market while preparing for a bear market on the one hand.

https://preview.redd.it/864543571cf51.png?width=2560&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cc17316075758ca10523a6124204ca57351d737
On UPbit and Bithumb, the major cryptocurrency exchanges in Korea, one can profit in a bull market, but it is very difficult to realize profits in a bear market, nless you are a master of flipping,. As a result, many cryptocurrency traders will turn their attention to cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges in bear markets.
After a successful launch of the Bitcoin perpetual contract product, the trading market on MCS is vigorously moving. The perpetual contract, one of Bitcoin derivatives, can short sell (betting on price drop) in the bear market, making it easy to profit even if the full-fledged bear market starts. In addition, even in today's bull market, you can take long positions (betting on rising prices), and you can use leverage to amplify your investment beyond the assets managed you own, enabling very effective Bitcoin trading.
*If you use leverage, the risk is significantly higher, so please be cautious of the risk and trade safely.
I hope this post helped you to understand the pros and cons of Bitcoin perpetual contract better, and I really wish that you realize your financial freedom on MCS, a cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform!!
I am a Bitcoin margin trader, Hedgehog. Thank you for reading this post.

Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS.
Thank you.

MCS Website: https://mycoinstory.com/
MCS Official Twitter (EN): https://twitter.com/mycoinstory_mcs
MCS Official Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.official
MCS Telegram Chat (EN): https://t.me/mycoinstory_EN
submitted by MyCoinStory to MyCoinStory [link] [comments]

Crypto Banking Wars: Will Coinbase or Binance Become The Bank of The Future?

Crypto Banking Wars: Will Coinbase or Binance Become The Bank of The Future?
Can the early success of major crypto exchanges propel them to winning the broader consumer finance market?
https://reddit.com/link/i48t4q/video/v4eo10gom7f51/player
This is the first part of Crypto Banking Wars — a new series that examines what crypto-native company is most likely to become the bank of the future. Who is best positioned to reach mainstream adoption in consumer finance?
While crypto allows the world to get rid of banks, a bank will still very much be necessary for this powerful technology to reach the masses. We believe a crypto-native company, like Genesis Block, will become the bank of the future.
In an earlier series, Crypto-Powered, we laid out arguments for why crypto-native companies have a huge edge in the market. When you consider both the broad spectrum of financial use-cases and the enormous value unlocked through these DeFi protocols, you can see just how big of an unfair advantage blockchain tech becomes for companies who truly understand and leverage it. Traditional banks and fintech unicorns simply won’t be able to keep up.
The power players of consumer finance in the 21st century will be crypto-native companies who build with blockchain technology at their core.
The crypto landscape is still nascent. We’re still very much in the fragmented, unbundled phase of the industry lifecycle. Beyond what Genesis Block is doing, there are signs of other companies slowly starting to bundle financial services into what could be an all-in-one bank replacement.
So the key question that this series hopes to answer:
Which crypto-native company will successfully become the bank of the future?
We obviously think Genesis Block is well-positioned to win. But we certainly aren’t the only game in town. In this series, we’ll be doing an analysis of who is most capable of thwarting our efforts. We’ll look at categories like crypto exchanges, crypto wallets, centralized lending & borrowing services, and crypto debit card companies. Each category will have its own dedicated post.
Today we’re analyzing big crypto exchanges. The two companies we’ll focus on today are Coinbase (biggest American exchange) and Binance (biggest global exchange). They are the top two exchanges in terms of Bitcoin trading volume. They are in pole position to winning this market — they have a huge existing userbase and strong financial resources.
Will Coinbase or Binance become the bank of the future? Can their early success propel them to winning the broader consumer finance market? Is their growth too far ahead for anyone else to catch up? Let’s dive in.
https://preview.redd.it/lau4hevpm7f51.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c5de1ba497199f36aa194e5809bd86e5ab533d8

Binance

The most formidable exchange on the global stage is Binance (Crunchbase). All signs suggest they have significantly more users and a stronger balance sheet than Coinbase. No other exchange is executing as aggressively and relentlessly as Binance is. The cadence at which they are shipping and launching new products is nothing short of impressive. As Tushar Jain from Multicoin argues, Binance is Blitzscaling.
Here are some of the products that they’ve launched in the last 18 months. Only a few are announced but still pre-launch.
Binance is well-positioned to become the crypto-powered, all-in-one, bundled solution for financial services. They already have so many of the pieces. But the key question is:
Can they create a cohesive & united product experience?

Binance Weaknesses

Binance is strong, but they do have a few major weaknesses that could slow them down.
  1. Traders & Speculators Binance is currently very geared for speculators, traders, and financial professionals. Their bread-and-butter is trading (spot, margin, options, futures). Their UI is littered with depth charts, order books, candlesticks, and other financial concepts that are beyond the reach of most normal consumers. Their product today is not at all tailored for the broader consumer market. Given Binance’s popularity and strength among the pro audience, it’s unlikely that they will dumb down or simplify their product any time soon. That would jeopardize their core business. Binance will likely need an entirely new product/brand to go beyond the pro user crowd. That will take time (or an acquisition). So the question remains, is Binance even interested in the broader consumer market? Or will they continue to focus on their core product, the one-stop-shop for pro crypto traders?
  2. Controversies & Hot Water Binance has had a number of controversies. No one seems to know where they are based — so what regulatory agencies can hold them accountable? Last year, some sensitive, private user data got leaked. When they announced their debit card program, they had to remove mentions of Visa quickly after. And though the “police raid” story proved to be untrue, there are still a lot of questions about what happened with their Shanghai office shut down (where there is smoke, there is fire). If any company has had a “move fast and break things” attitude, it is Binance. That attitude has served them well so far but as they try to do business in more regulated countries like America, this will make their road much more difficult — especially in the consumer market where trust takes a long time to earn, but can be destroyed in an instant. This is perhaps why the Binance US product is an empty shell when compared to their main global product.
  3. Disjointed Product Experience Because Binance has so many different teams launching so many different services, their core product is increasingly feeling disjointed and disconnected. Many of the new features are sloppily integrated with each other. There’s no cohesive product experience. This is one of the downsides of executing and shipping at their relentless pace. For example, users don’t have a single wallet that shows their balances. Depending on if the user wants to do spot trading, margin, futures, or savings… the user needs to constantly be transferring their assets from one wallet to another. It’s not a unified, frictionless, simple user experience. This is one major downside of the “move fast and break things” approach.
  4. BNB token Binance raised $15M in a 2017 ICO by selling their $BNB token. The current market cap of $BNB is worth more than $2.6B. Financially this token has served them well. However, given how BNB works (for example, their token burn), there are a lot of open questions as to how BNB will be treated with US security laws. Their Binance US product so far is treading very lightly with its use of BNB. Their token could become a liability for Binance as it enters more regulated markets. Whether the crypto community likes it or not, until regulators get caught up and understand the power of decentralized technology, tokens will still be a regulatory burden — especially for anything that touches consumers.
  5. Binance Chain & Smart Contract Platform Binance is launching its own smart contract platform soon. Based on compatibility choices, they have their sights aimed at the Ethereum developer community. It’s unclear how easy it’ll be to convince developers to move to Binance chain. Most of the current developer energy and momentum around smart contracts is with Ethereum. Because Binance now has their own horse in the race, it’s unlikely they will ever decide to leverage Ethereum’s DeFi protocols. This could likely be a major strategic mistake — and hubris that goes a step too far. Binance will be pushing and promoting protocols on their own platform. The major risk of being all-in on their own platform is that they miss having a seat on the Ethereum rocket ship — specifically the growth of DeFi use-cases and the enormous value that can be unlocked. Integrating with Ethereum’s protocols would be either admitting defeat of their own platform or competing directly against themselves.

Binance Wrap Up

I don’t believe Binance is likely to succeed with a homegrown product aimed at the consumer finance market. Their current product — which is focused heavily on professional traders and speculators — is unlikely to become the bank of the future. If they wanted to enter the broader consumer market, I believe it’s much more likely that they will acquire a company that is getting early traction. They are not afraid to make acquisitions (Trust, JEX, WazirX, DappReview, BxB, CoinMarketCap, Swipe).
However, never count CZ out. He is a hustler. Binance is executing so aggressively and relentlessly that they will always be on the shortlist of major contenders.
https://preview.redd.it/mxmlg1zqm7f51.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d900dd5ff7f3b00df5fe5a48305d57ebeffaa9a

Coinbase

The crypto-native company that I believe is more likely to become the bank of the future is Coinbase (crunchbase). Their dominance in America could serve as a springboard to winning the West (Binance has a stronger foothold in Asia). Coinbase has more than 30M users. Their exchange business is a money-printing machine. They have a solid reputation as it relates to compliance and working with regulators. Their CEO is a longtime member of the crypto community. They are rumored to be going public soon.

Coinbase Strengths

Let’s look at what makes them strong and a likely contender for winning the broader consumer finance market.
  1. Different Audience, Different Experience Coinbase has been smart to create a unique product experience for each audience — the pro speculator crowd and the common retail user. Their simple consumer version is at Coinbase.com. That’s the default. Their product for the more sophisticated traders and speculators is at Coinbase Pro (formerly GDAX). Unlike Binance, Coinbase can slowly build out the bank of the future for the broad consumer market while still having a home for their hardcore crypto traders. They aren’t afraid to have different experiences for different audiences.
  2. Brand & Design Coinbase has a strong product design team. Their brand is capable of going beyond the male-dominated crypto audience. Their product is clean and simple — much more consumer-friendly than Binance. It’s clear they spend a lot of time thinking about their user experience. Interacting directly with crypto can sometimes be rough and raw (especially for n00bs). When I was at Mainframe we hosted a panel about Crypto UX challenges at the DevCon4 Dapp Awards. Connie Yang (Head of Design at Coinbase) was on the panel. She was impressive. Some of their design philosophies will bode well as they push to reach the broader consumer finance market.
  3. USDC Stablecoin Coinbase (along with Circle) launched USDC. We’ve shared some stats about its impressive growth when we discussed DeFi use-cases. USDC is quickly becoming integrated with most DeFi protocols. As a result, Coinbase is getting a front-row seat at some of the most exciting things happening in decentralized finance. As Coinbase builds its knowledge and networks around these protocols, it could put them in a favorable position to unlock incredible value for their users.
  4. Early Signs of Bundling Though Coinbase has nowhere near as many products & services as Binance, they are slowly starting to add more financial services that may appeal to the broader market. They are now letting depositors earn interest on USDC (also DAI & Tezos). In the UK they are piloting a debit card. Users can now invest in crypto with dollar-cost-averaging. It’s not much, but it’s a start. You can start to see hints of a more bundled solution around financial services.

Coinbase Weaknesses

Let’s now look at some things that could hold them back.
  1. Slow Cadence In the fast-paced world of crypto, and especially when compared to Binance, Coinbase does not ship very many new products very often. This is perhaps their greatest weakness. Smaller, more nimble startups may run circles around them. They were smart to launch Coinbase Ventures where tey invest in early-stage startups. They can now keep an ear to the ground on innovation. Perhaps their cadence is normal for a company of their size — but the Binance pace creates quite the contrast.
  2. Lack of Innovation When you consider the previous point (slow cadence), it’s unclear if Coinbase is capable of building and launching new products that are built internally. Most of their new products have come through acquisitions. Their Earn.com acquisition is what led to their Earn educational product. Their acquisition of Xapo helped bolster their institutional custody offering. They acqui-hired a team to help launch their staking infrastructure. Their acquisition of Cipher Browser became an important part of Coinbase Wallet. And recently, they acquired Tagomi — a crypto prime brokerage. Perhaps most of Coinbase’s team is just focused on improving their golden goose, their exchange business. It’s unclear. But the jury is still out on if they can successfully innovate internally and launch any homegrown products.
  3. Talent Exodus There have been numerous reports of executive turmoil at Coinbase. It raises a lot of questions about company culture and vision. Some of the executives who departed include COO Asiff Hirji, CTO Balaji Srinivasan, VP & GM Adam White, VP Eng Tim Wagner, VP Product Jeremy Henrickson, Sr Dir of Eng Namrata Ganatra, VP of Intl Biz Dan Romero, Dir of Inst Sales Christine Sandler, Head of Trading Hunter Merghart, Dir Data Science Soups Ranjan, Policy Lead Mike Lempres, Sr Compliance Vaishali Mehta. Many of these folks didn’t stay with Coinbase very long. We don’t know exactly why it’s happening —but when you consider a few of my first points (slow cadence, lack of innovation), you have to wonder if it’s all related.
  4. Institutional Focus As a company, we are a Coinbase client. We love their institutional offering. It’s clear they’ve been investing a lot in this area. A recent Coinbase blog post made it clear that this has been a focus: “Over the past 12 months, Coinbase has been laser-focused on building out the types of features and services that our institutional customers need.” Their Tagomi acquisition only re-enforced this focus. Perhaps this is why their consumer product has felt so neglected. They’ve been heavily investing in their institutional services since May 2018. For a company that’s getting very close to an IPO, it makes sense that they’d focus on areas that present strong revenue opportunities — as they do with institutional clients. Even for big companies like Coinbase, it’s hard to have a split focus. If they are “laser-focused” on the institutional audience, it’s unlikely they’ll be launching any major consumer products anytime soon.

Coinbase Wrap Up

At Genesis Block, we‘re proud to be working with Coinbase. They are a fantastic company. However, I don’t believe that they’ll succeed in building their own product for the broader consumer finance market. While they have incredible design, there are no signs that they are focused on or capable of internally building this type of product.
Similar to Binance, I think it’s far more likely that Coinbase acquires a promising young startup with strong growth.

Honorable Mentions

Other US-based exchanges worth mentioning are Kraken, Gemini, and Bittrex. So far we’ve seen very few signs that any of them will aggressively attack broader consumer finance. Most are going in the way of Binance — listing more assets and adding more pro tools like margin and futures trading. And many, like Coinbase, are trying to attract more institutional customers. For example, Gemini with their custody product.

Wrap Up

Coinbase and Binance have huge war chests and massive reach. For that alone, they should always be considered threats to Genesis Block. However, their products are very, very different than the product we’re building. And their approach is very different as well. They are trying to educate and onboard people into crypto. At Genesis Block, we believe the masses shouldn’t need to know or care about it. We did an entire series about this, Spreading Crypto.
Most everyone needs banking — whether it be to borrow, spend, invest, earn interest, etc. Not everyone needs a crypto exchange. For non-crypto consumers (the mass market), the differences between a bank and a crypto exchange are immense. Companies like Binance and Coinbase make a lot of money on their crypto exchange business. It would be really difficult, gutsy, and risky for any of them to completely change their narrative, messaging, and product to focus on the broader consumer market. I don’t believe they would ever risk biting the hand that feeds them.
In summary, as it relates to a digital bank aimed at the mass market, I believe both Coinbase and Binance are much more likely to acquire a startup in this space than they are to build it themselves. And I think they would want to keep the brand/product distinct and separate from their core crypto exchange business.
So back to the original question, is Coinbase and Binance a threat to Genesis Block? Not really. Not today. But they could be, and for that, we want to stay close to them.
------
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Will Bitcoin still rise

Will Bitcoin still rise
The gray scale appears again. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has more than 400,000 holdings, setting a new high again. These positions are mainly US institutional investors. The growth potential of other investors is still great. After all, the number of speculators is still several orders of magnitude behind the number of people in any mainstream stock market in the world. The currency circle deserves our continued attention.
At the same time, the founder of Grayscale said that next week, a large number of advertisements promoting Bitcoin and Ethereum will be placed on FOX, CNBC, MSNBC and FOX Buisiness, in order to make Bitcoin and Ethereum and other digital currency investments public. Obviously, after this wave of advertisements, funds will obviously flow in again, so the new funds will effectively support currency prices next week. The overall opportunity is greater than the risk, and the sustained high is the high probability market.

Combining the weekly charts of Bitcoin and Ethereum, it is clear that the relay market is rising. In an upward trend, don't scare yourself every day. Once the cost advantage position is cancelled, it will be difficult to find a comfortable position in the future. I got in the car and the trend is good, so I should continue to sleep on my back.
Bitcoin weekly (rising relay):
Bitcoin:
The probability of a sharp correction of Bitcoin is still low. The next 1-2 months should be in a stable period with low risk. At this time, Bitcoin will not bring huge wealth effects to everyone. Long-term investors should hold it patiently. The return is much higher than that of participating in the stock market. It is better to hold the spot and short short.

ETH:
Stronger than most mainstream, since there is no direct attack today, the high shock should continue for 1-2 days, and a new high will be reached after the shock.

XRP:
It is very weak. Although there is news that Ripple will cooperate with Bank of America, but with so many banks, it has nothing to do with currency prices.

LTC:
The trend is obviously weaker than most mainstream. I have said this dozens of times this year because there is no hype expected.

BCH:
The fork has not been specifically determined, so continue to link up.

EOS:
Linking the big pie, will follow up afterwards, but it is probably not very exciting.

BSV:
This wave is always weaker than his father's BCH. When will the volume increase in a single hour, then consider participating, otherwise the opportunity cost of holding positions will be too high.

ZEC:
High shrinkage callback, the trend has not changed, take it first.

ADA:
The new high should be coming soon. It is obviously strong recently. Hold the position first.

TRX:
The trend has not changed, hold.

XMR:
Anonymous classes are obviously weaker today, including dash, but the overall callback amount is not large, and will continue to rise after a few days of shock.

IOTA:
2.0 is coming, and the enthusiasm for small currency speculation is relatively strong recently. You can pay attention to whether there will be an acceleration in the future.

LINK:
Stepped on the vent of the oracle and became the leader of the market. Recently, it has accelerated. The market value has surpassed Wright, ADA, and BSV to the sixth position. This acceleration inevitably means short-term risks. It is not recommended that everyone follow High, those holding positions can dump goods one by one.
Zues Capital, an institution that shorted LINK, liquidated its position by 11 million US dollars. Investors who did not follow the trend, no matter who they were, would be crushed by the market. Use this as a lesson.
submitted by Bitcoin_lovers to btc [link] [comments]

Gold new High

For Trading JULY 28th
DKNG FALTERS
“NEW ALL-TIME HIGH FOR GOLD”
BITCOIN RALLIES
Today’s market got off to a mixed start NASDAQ higher and a somewhat subdued start for the DJIA and S&P-500, but the others caught up quickly and all rallied into the close with the DJIA +114.88 (.43%), NASDAQ +173.09 (1.67%), S&P 500 +23.78 (.74%), the Russell +17.10 (1.17%) and the DJ Transports +87.30 (.90%). Market internals continued positive with both NYSE and NASDAQ 1.5:1 higher although volume was down. DJIA was 17 up and 13 down with no major movers but AAPL adding 60 DP’s and BA losing 25. Durable goods gained 7.3% vs. 6.4 expected and that gave the market some solid underpinnings. Commodities were all higher as the U.S. Dollar continues to fall. While I think that we may get a reflex rally shortly, commodities are still cheaper than stocks.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video over the weekend on a day-trade, (actually 2) that I made in AAPL on Friday. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to under what conditions these kind of trades in expiring options make sense. The link is https://youtu.be/qIV0G-hP3aM Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/FDZWwDnw7qM
SECTORS: DraftKings (DKNG) really took it on the chin today as several baseball teams had players that tested positive for COVID-19. This had a snowball effect and caused a total of 5 teams cancelling games and putting into question the viability of continuing sports available for betting. The NFL is also at odds with the NFL Players association over several issues and that would clearly put into question of whether there will be a season for them also. After the deal with the SPAC to bring the company public the stock had a steady rise from the $12.00 level to a high of $44.79, a decline and a pullback and an attempt to move higher that resulted in a lower high (43.75 in June), and another decline back to 27.54 in July and another lower high of 38.84 last week and the possible start of a new decline. While the stock is a favorite of bettors without sports to bet on and the legions of new RobinHood investors, it is still an “unseasoned security” and is subject to erratic swings. It would not surprise me if baseball ends in the short term to see this one back at $24- $25. On the rise today, TSM up 12.7% on speculation that the INTC news of problems with their new chips would cause them to purchase chips from TSM. After close of $67.37 on Thursday, TSM closed up at 73.90 Friday and gapped up today to finish $83.25 +9.35 (12.7%) and is now $84.88 in after hours.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.32, BGS +.95, FLO +.13, CPB +.09, CAG +.36, MDLZ +1.08, KHC +.32, CALM +.84, JJSF +1.60, SAFM -1.38, HRL +.28, SJM +.72, PPC -.29, KR +.18 and PBJ $33.31 +.39 (1.19%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +15.19, ABBV +.09, REGN +26.06, ISRG +10.02, GILD +1.00, MYL +.26, TEVA +.07, VRTX +5.72, BHC +1.75, INCY +2.67, ICPT +.97, LABU +5.03 and IBB $140.05 +3.64 (2.67%).
CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.31, CGC +1.19, CRON +.30, GWPH +2.58, ACB +.17, CURLF +.56, KERN -.05, and MJ $13.29 +.32 (2.47%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -4.12, GD -2.17, TXT -.17, NOC -3.70, BWXT -.34, TDY -1.66, RTX -.73 and ITA $161.05 -2.19 (1.34%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with the brands higher and M -.25, JWN -.89, KSS -.86, DDS -1.08, WMT -.03, TGT -.82, TJX -.81, RL +.16, UAA +.22, LULU +10.50, TPR +.38, CPRI -.20, and XRT $46.67 +.51 (1.10%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +26.39, AMZN +49.32, AAPL +10.52, FB +3.79, NFLX +16.65, NVDA +9.97, TSLA +126, BABA +2.49, BIDU -3.17, CMG +14.74, CAT +2.80, MSFT +3.00, BA -3.61, DIS -1.26 and XLK $106.86 +1.66 (1.58%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS +1.63, JPM -1.27, BAC -.16, MS +1.14, C -.26, PNC -1.92, AIG -.46, TRV -1.65, AXP +.67, V +2.40, and XLF $24.07 -.20 (.82%).
OIL, $41.60 +.31. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, that it is a toss-up for a move in either direction. The stocks were MIXED with XLE $37.55 +.04 (.11%).
GOLD $1,931.00 +33.50. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,897.70. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market. The spread was put on at $1.30 and finished the day @ $2.67.
BITCOIN: closed $10,895 +1,280. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $12.15 + 1.77 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Gold All Time High!

For Trading JULY 28th
DKNG FALTERS
“NEW ALL-TIME HIGH FOR GOLD”
BITCOIN RALLIES
Our NEM spread is still cruising
Today’s market got off to a mixed start NASDAQ higher and a somewhat subdued start for the DJIA and S&P-500, but the others caught up quickly and all rallied into the close with the DJIA +114.88 (.43%), NASDAQ +173.09 (1.67%), S&P 500 +23.78 (.74%), the Russell +17.10 (1.17%) and the DJ Transports +87.30 (.90%). Market internals continued positive with both NYSE and NASDAQ 1.5:1 higher although volume was down. DJIA was 17 up and 13 down with no major movers but AAPL adding 60 DP’s and BA losing 25. Durable goods gained 7.3% vs. 6.4 expected and that gave the market some solid underpinnings. Commodities were all higher as the U.S. Dollar continues to fall. While I think that we may get a reflex rally shortly, commodities are still cheaper than stocks.
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/FDZWwDnw7qM
Our discord channel link is in the video description
SECTORS: DraftKings (DKNG) really took it on the chin today as several baseball teams had players that tested positive for COVID-19. This had a snowball effect and caused a total of 5 teams cancelling games and putting into question the viability of continuing sports available for betting. The NFL is also at odds with the NFL Players association over several issues and that would clearly put into question of whether there will be a season for them also. After the deal with the SPAC to bring the company public the stock had a steady rise from the $12.00 level to a high of $44.79, a decline and a pullback and an attempt to move higher that resulted in a lower high (43.75 in June), and another decline back to 27.54 in July and another lower high of 38.84 last week and the possible start of a new decline. While the stock is a favorite of bettors without sports to bet on and the legions of new RobinHood investors, it is still an “unseasoned security” and is subject to erratic swings. It would not surprise me if baseball ends in the short term to see this one back at $24- $25. On the rise today, TSM up 12.7% on speculation that the INTC news of problems with their new chips would cause them to purchase chips from TSM. After close of $67.37 on Thursday, TSM closed up at 73.90 Friday and gapped up today to finish $83.25 +9.35 (12.7%) and is now $84.88 in after hours.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.32, BGS +.95, FLO +.13, CPB +.09, CAG +.36, MDLZ +1.08, KHC +.32, CALM +.84, JJSF +1.60, SAFM -1.38, HRL +.28, SJM +.72, PPC -.29, KR +.18 and PBJ $33.31 +.39 (1.19%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +15.19, ABBV +.09, REGN +26.06, ISRG +10.02, GILD +1.00, MYL +.26, TEVA +.07, VRTX +5.72, BHC +1.75, INCY +2.67, ICPT +.97, LABU +5.03 and IBB $140.05 +3.64 (2.67%).
CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.31, CGC +1.19, CRON +.30, GWPH +2.58, ACB +.17, CURLF +.56, KERN -.05, and MJ $13.29 +.32 (2.47%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -4.12, GD -2.17, TXT -.17, NOC -3.70, BWXT -.34, TDY -1.66, RTX -.73 and ITA $161.05 -2.19 (1.34%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with the brands higher and M -.25, JWN -.89, KSS -.86, DDS -1.08, WMT -.03, TGT -.82, TJX -.81, RL +.16, UAA +.22, LULU +10.50, TPR +.38, CPRI -.20, and XRT $46.67 +.51 (1.10%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +26.39, AMZN +49.32, AAPL +10.52, FB +3.79, NFLX +16.65, NVDA +9.97, TSLA +126, BABA +2.49, BIDU -3.17, CMG +14.74, CAT +2.80, MSFT +3.00, BA -3.61, DIS -1.26 and XLK $106.86 +1.66 (1.58%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS +1.63, JPM -1.27, BAC -.16, MS +1.14, C -.26, PNC -1.92, AIG -.46, TRV -1.65, AXP +.67, V +2.40, and XLF $24.07 -.20 (.82%).
OIL, $41.60 +.31. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, that it is a toss-up for a move in either direction. The stocks were MIXED with XLE $37.55 +.04 (.11%).
GOLD $1,931.00 +33.50. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,897.70. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market. The spread was put on at $1.30 and finished the day @ $2.67.
BITCOIN: closed $10,895 +1,280. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $12.15 + 1.77 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

The Morning Update for June 12th

For Trading JUNE 12th
IT’S NEVER DIFFERENT!!
Sometimes it Just Takes Longer
Declines Across All Asset Classes
Today’s market was just waiting to happen, and finally it had the FED to blame. More specifically, it had the influx of newly minted retail investors, bored without any sports to bet their PUA and unemployment checks on, and taking a “shot on anything that looked cheap” (not by p/e, but just by price) and all those great bankruptcy lotto plays. To be fair, the spike in COVID-19 cases across 20 states and places like Arizona telling anyone who would listen that they are at capacity in their ICUs, and we had a perfect storm for the sellers. Add to that the unbridled speculation in airlines and cruise ships going back into business and BA going from $140 to $240 (pre-market, not in the real world) and “What could possibly go wrong?” Well, BA traded down to $166.00 before a minor bounce to close $170.00 -33.41 (16.42%). By midday the down 900 preopening futures looked tame with the DJIA -1400 (5%) and the NAZ -400 and the S&P -140. Then, at 2:30 when the margin calls hit the next wave sent us to -1750 by 3:00. Things calmed down for a while and the teleprompter readers made all sorts of excuses for the fall, but the fact that we went too far too fast with no REAL economic justification, or realistic expectation about what a “reopening of the country” would look like, all the while the Orange Emperor and his henchmen were telling anyone who would listen that this was a “rocket ship.” Seems more like the Challenger disaster today. The final numbers were DJIA -1861.82 (6.9%), NASDAQ -527.62 (5.27%), S&P 500 -188.04 (5.89%, the Russell -111.17 (7.58%), and the Transports – 741>66 (7.74%). Market internals were absurdly warped with the NYSE 33:1 down and NASDAQ 13:1. Volume was slightly higher than yesterday. All 11 S&P sectors were lower and the DJIA had no gainers. The biggest losers were BA -228, UNH-151, GS -132, AAPL -116, and HD -103 DPs. The worst losses were in energy, financials, industrials, material’s and real estate. Least bad was consumer staples.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/Qf9ObfrgJb4
SECTORS: I’m going to change up and shorten tonight’s Note since it was such an overwhelming bad day. I’ll list all sectors with the worst and least worst and the ETF to reflect the overall damage. There were a couple earnings reports, LULU missed numbers by a penny with .22 vs .23 expected. The stock was $308 -14.73 (4.5%) before the numbers and after the miss the stock traded $282 with a last of 287 – another $21 for a total loss of 36.25 (11.2%). Adobe (ADBE) beat on earnings but missed on revenues, but the market was pleased, nonetheless. The stock had closed $388.30 -18.52 (4.55%) but turned on a dime and headed back to trade $407.11 and is currently 403 +15 (3,.8%). Last, we had great news on human trials for REGN for Covid-19 antibodies but after making a new all-time high @ $625.79, even REGN was subject to the decline and finished the day $30 off the highs at $596.77 -9.82 (1.62%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with FLO the only gainer +.52 (2.26%) and BGS, maker of Green Giant and Ortega to name a few was $22.46 -2.88 (11.37%), HRL and SJM, consumer staples were both down about 2.5% PBJ finished $30.24 -1.24 (3.95%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with the best performer, REGN (see above) -1.72% and BHC 17.35 -1.43 (7.61%) and IBB $127.57 -5.77 (4.33%).
CANNABIS: was LOWER with CRON $6.56 -1.03 (13.57%) the worst and GWPH $121.13 -7.00 (5.46%) the best and MJ $13.45 -1.40 (9.43%).
DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -13.80 (3.42 %) the best and TXT $31.63 -3.71 (10.5%) and ITA $166.40 -14.68 (8.11%).
RETAIL was LOWER with M -1.06 (13.35%) the worst and WMT the best -1.07 (.88%), and XRT $40.84 -2.36 (5.48%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with BA the worst (see above) -31.26 or (15.52%) and NFLX -3.48 (1.95%) and XLK $98.39 -5.72 (5.49%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with C $48.70 -7.17 (12.84%) and V 189.01 -11.47 (5.72%) the best and XLF $23.22 -1.97 (7.82%).
OIL, $36.34 -3.26. Oil was under pressure all day, finishing near the lows and is slightly lower tonight. The stocks were weak with OXY $17.59 -3.17 (15.27%) and CVX $89.80 -7.78 (7.97 the best performer. XLE finished $38.96 -3.92 (9.14%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,739.80 +19.10. After trading higher this morning Gold and Silver both got sold off with the massive liquidation that hit all markets. After finishing no better than mid-range, we are lower by $4 tonight. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86.
BITCOIN: closed $9,300 -635. After trading higher again early this morning (10080) BTC got hit with the same liquidation as all other stocks and commodities. It fell back to 9,090 and is slightly higher tonight. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $10.76 -1.53 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

Chainlink Price explodes - Reasons for the increase in LINK Price

Chainlink Price explodes - Reasons for the increase in LINK Price
Chainlink (LINK) is currently the most popular Defi project.
The LINK rate has almost doubled in the past 3 weeks and hit a new all-time high of $ 8.48. As a result, the market capitalization rose briefly to over $ 2.5 billion and placed LINK in 8th place at CoinMarketCap.
Of course, many are wondering how such a sharp rise in share prices could occur.
https://preview.redd.it/8c4avufatsa51.png?width=337&format=png&auto=webp&s=5fa98b24c647e46df8fd75333bb62071e7499fbb
Therefore, today we take a closer look at the possible reasons for the strong LINK Pump.
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Basically, there are currently three main factors that have led to the LINK price increase.
This includes the human psychology of pricing, high-profile partnerships, and a generally strong dynamic in the altcoin market.
In addition, the increasing trading volume may have fueled the LINK price increase.

Chainlink pricing

Then on July 6th, the time had come.
The LINK price exceeded its previous record high of $ 5.31 and entered the pricing phase.
This phase leads to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in most markets.
The way up is clear and has no natural resistance that could be identified by technical chart analysis.
Exactly this fact leads to the fact that many speculators get in and fear to miss something, are almost ready to pay any price.
Therefore the current Chainlink price increase could be irrational and encounter a hard correction.
Within the last seven days, after the old all-time high was broken, the price exploded by over 40%, rising from $ 5.31 to $ 8.48.
The LINK price is currently around USD 7.76.
The trading volume of LINK also rose to a level that has not been observed since April 2020.
At that point, the bitcoins price recovered from its strong sell-off to around $ 3,750.
During this period, the demand for cryptocurrencies from retail investors rose by leaps and bounds. Some analysts believe that the LINK price could rise to USD 10 in the next few weeks.
However, this statement should be treated with caution.

Partnerships stimulate business

Over the course of this year, Chainlink has entered into many high-profile partnerships with companies in the crypto sector. Chainlink partnered with Nexo on July 8th. Nexo is a crypto credit company with around 800,000 users. Chainlink is to make its Oracle solutions available to the company. Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov said:
We are excited to bring Chainlink's secure and reliable Oracle solutions to Nexo's popular credit platform so users can independently check the interest rate and collateral rates they should receive on the blockchain.
Over the past two months, Chainlink has partnered with blockchain projects and companies like Matic Network and Hedera Hashgraph. Chainlink was also mentioned in a Google blog post entitled Building hybrid blockchain/cloud applications with Ethereum and Google Cloud.
LINK does not miss a partnership and therefore remains on everyone's lips.
Feels like every major crypto company is already included as a partner. This attracts a lot of attention and thus increases interest in Chainlink.

Altcoin and Defi Momentum bring LINK up

The Altcoin market has shown its strong side in recent weeks. While the Bitcoin price was rather sideways, some altcoins have exploded. Chainlink is just the tip of the iceberg. Many other projects, especially from the Defi Space, were able to grow properly.
DeFi is on everyone's lips and investors are looking for the next “insider tip” to quickly make a few 100%.
The crypto market is becoming increasingly irrational and money is being thrown from one project to the next. It is strongly reminiscent of 2017 and 2018 at the ICO hype.
The strong hype and greed can be felt and makes a timely correction more and more likely.
Many are already talking about an Altcoin Season and are currently seeing LINK and many other Altcoin projects outperforming BTC. How long the situation lasts and whether further profits can be achieved with LINK is in the stars.
But you should keep in mind that Chainlink has increased by over 450% in the last 3-4 months. This could lead to strong correction.
submitted by jakkkmotivator to thecryptobasic [link] [comments]

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